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COVID metrics present tough times ahead for holiday plans

By Stew Cohen

Doubling down on COVID-19 and taking added precautions are what you’ll hear today and for the next few weeks from the Public Health Administrator in McHenry County and the director of the Kane County Health Department as we come ever closer to Thanksgiving and Christmas.

The breakneck speed in which COVID related negative news in late October has popped is jarring because many parts of Illinois were moving forward, stepping toward normalcy.

Now we’re facing “an increasing percentage of positivity cases, new case count, and case incident rate,” according to McHenry County Department of Health Nursing Director Susan Karras. A statement by the MCDH indicates a change in the county’s methodology was made to avoid further confusion. “Both the MCDH and Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) methodology of calculating positivity is correct,” Karras explained. However, Karras recognizes the methodologies are different, therefore resulting in differences between the two. “We chose to shift to IDPH’s methodology because the state is using their metrics to require mitigation in McHenry County and region regardless of what our local data shows,” she said.



Back in early October when the rate of new cases started to rise, MCDH showed the rate rose from 14 cases per 100,000 population to over 25 cases per 100,000 population. Before the shift in methodology, the state’s positivity rate in McHenry County was higher at 8.4 percent compared to 6.2 percent by MCDH. What IDPH was doing was counting each positive and negative test a person had. The county counted each person once, no matter how many tests they had. This was a method previously used by the IDPH and adopted by the county’s health department. However, the state’s current methodology has resulted in McHenry County reaching a warning level. This meant COVID-19 restrictions were likely ahead for McHenry County as the color warning level went from blue to orange. Officially, the state’s county level risk metrics map indicated an increased risk of COVID-19 in McHenry County. But as Karras said, the county is not solely looking at increased positivity, but increased rate of new cases too. In all, eight metrics are used by the state in their evaluation of COVID warning signs. The epidemiologist for the McHenry County Department of Health noted the county health department’s report that three of the four metrics used to make a transition determination have indicated a return to a previous learning model.

“Our data shows a rapid increase in cases compared to previous weeks,” Ryan Sach said. “Sharp increases like we’re seeing are an early indicator of increased community spread.”

In Huntley Community School District 158, a fully remote schedule began on Monday, October 26 temporarily replacing a hybrid schedule. The district will reevaluate sometime after November 6. Asked of Karras for the MCDH response to schools reacting to increased COVID cases, she said, “The superintendents make the decision on what mode of learning their district will be in. This decision is not solely made on the metrics, there are many other factors that are taken into consideration when making this difficult decision.”

Those other factors include “infrastructure, staffing and requirements laid out from the Illinois State Board of Education and the Illinois Department of Public Health when deciding transitions between learning models,” according to an October 22 release from MCDH.

McHenry County Board Chairman Jack Franks wrote to the Illinois Department of Public Health urging the state to adopt the McHenry County Department of Health’s metrics to tabulate its COVID-19 positivity rate, rather than the metrics used by IDPH.

“While I deeply respect the outstanding job the MCDH has done in response to the pandemic, I oppose its decision to use IDPH metrics on the grounds that, again, doing so could overstate the true positivity rate and plunge our county into restrictions sooner than necessary,” Franks said.

The Franks letter dated October 23 was sent to Dr. Ngozi Ezike, director of the Illinois Department of Public Health and asked Ezike that if further mitigation is necessary, it be tempered to only apply to businesses that fail to follow common-sense preventative measures. The county chairman pointed out the enhanced mitigation measures appear to take a one-size-fits-all approach to a select subset of businesses.

In Kane County, the health department has spent time lately reminding residents that the operation of bars and restaurants have been affected because the IDPH has put Kane County on its COVID-19 county watch list. Kane County Health Department Executive Director Barbara Jeffers says restrictions are in place to help reduce the spread of the virus.

“Social gatherings, including weddings, funerals, potlucks, and even birthday parties, are limited to no more than 25 guests,” Jeffers said.

For more information about COVID-19, visit the KCHD website at KaneHealth.com.

MCDH’S COVID-19 website is bit.ly/mcdhCOVID19 for updates, testing information and other resources. General questions regarding McHenry County School metrics can be sent via email to health@mchenrycountyil.gov.

To view the IDPH county-level risk map, visit the County Level COVID-19 Risk Metrics webpage.





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